Team Pakistan has left for the Carribean to defend their title under the leadership of their star player Shahid Afridi. They recieved a few major blows due to injuries and selectorial blunders due to which questions are being raised whether they can successfully defend their title or can reach the final four.
Most people believe that Pakistan excel in T20 format not because of any method or strategy but simply because the format suits the style of cricket they play. This notion is totally wrong.
Pakistan in the last two T20 world cups employed one strategy, they divided the 20 over game in three segments, the first six overs, the middle eight overs and the last six overs.
In batting in first six overs their strategy was to take full advantage of the powerplays without losing more than one or two wickets. In the middle eight overs the strategy was again to keep the wickets in tact by cutting down on high risk shots and by scoring through improvisation usually the middle eight overs are bowled by spinners and Pakistan had Malik and Younis who were the best players of spin at the crease during these overs, in the last six overs with wickets intact and power hitters on the crease their strategy was not to hit every ball out of the park but to score @ 9 or 10 runs an over no matter how they come.
In the first six overs Pakistan scored @ 7.38 rpo and conceded runs @ 7.75 rpo their batting average was just 24.18 and their bowling average was 34.87 which clearly indicates that the oppositions performed better against Pakistan in the first six overs. Pakistan’s opening pace attack is still the same they will probably still open with Aamer and Razzaq or Aamer and Asif unless Waqar has considerably improved Aamer’s bowling I don’t see Pakistan improving in the bowling department in the first six overs. Since there is no Imran Nazir and no Shahzaib Hassan it will be hard for Pakistan to improve their batting average or run rate in the first six overs. Pakistan probably will open with Hafeez and Akmal or Butt and Akmal, Hafeez although he is in excellent form but has never been a big match player if he failed to score as an opener all the pressure will be on Akmal and Pakistan’s performance might deteriorate in the first six overs. Butt might score some runs but he won’t be able to improve Pakistan’s run rate.
Shahid Afridi has been Pakistan’s leading batsman in the first six overs with a strike rate of over 200, I don’t see him batting at #3, I think Umar Akmal will bat at #3 and Afridi at #4. The first six overs is an area which will pose a lot of problems for Pakistan both in bowling and batting. Asif is more dangerous with the new ball and so is Razzaq, if Pakistan is going to play only three fast bowlers then which bowler will play the role of Umar Gul at death will cause a lot of problems. Afridi will have to open with Razzaq and Aamer and will probably bowl them 2 overs each and Asif and Aamer probably will share the last four overs.
The middle overs have been a major strength of Pakistan, they scored @ 7.33 rpo and conceded only 6.12 rpo their batting average during this period was 38.44 and bowling average 16.33 this is the period where Younis Khan and Malik consolidated the innings. Both players were hugely underappreciated in the last tournament YK out of 123 balls he played only played 21 dot balls his dot ball % was the least for any batsman in the tournament. Pakistan will be playing without YK and Malik and in their absence all the responsibility will be on Umar Akmal, Misbah and Fawad Alam.
Misbah internationally hasn’t done anything in the last year his domestic form has been excellent in all formats of the game but it will be interesting to see if he can play the role of Younis Khan for Pakistan in this tournament or not Pakistan’s chances of success depend a lot on his performance. Fawad Alam has the capacity to play the role of a consolidator he should not bat down the order nor he should bat at #3, I think #4 will be ideal for him.
In bowling Pakistan’s spin attack has been reinforced, Afridi and Ajmal are still in the team with the inclusion of Hafeez they will have another good spinner which might allow Afridi to keep Ajmal’s over in the last 10. Ajmal after Gul was Pakistan’s best bowler at death. I think with the wickets more conducive for spin bowling in the Carribean bowling wise Pakistan might repeat or improve their performance in the middle overs but batting wise they face a huge challenge they do have players like Umar Akmal, Afridi, Misbah and Fawad but with the exception of Fawad the rest of the batsmen rely more on boundaries to score than on working the ball which increases the risk of failure.
Pakistan have been excellent with the ball in the last six overs, they have scored @ of almost 8 rpo and conceded only 6.75 runs per over and also took 20 wickets during this period.
Ajmal’s econ rate was 5.25 and Gul’s econ rate was 5.55 both bowlers took 8 wickets each during these overs. Ajmal is still in the team but the absence of Gul will seriously hurt Pakistan who is the world’s leading T20 bowler and a specialist in death overs. I don’t think Asif, Razzaq or Aamer can bowl as effectively as Gul at death due to which I think Pakistan should play Sami instead of Asif.
It’s a difficult choice but in my opinion Sami can bowl at death more effectively than Asif, Pakistan also has an option of dropping Ajmal and playing with four fast bowlers or Playing with one less batsman which in my opinion is not a good Idea. This is the biggest challenge Pakistan team management is facing who they are going to plan their last six overs and which bowlers are going to bowl them, Ajmal can bowl 2 overs but who will bowl the other four. I think it should be Aamer or Sami.
In batting Pakistan has enough fire power to imorve their RPO in the last six overs Razzaq is in excellent form, batting wise Pakistan can improve in the last six overs.
Pakistan in my opinion are not favorites but they do have the capability to win the tournament, the absence of Umar Gul will hurt them the most as he has been the X factor for Pakistan in this format.
Probable 11
1-Akmal 2-Hafeez 3-Latif 4-Afridi 5-Misbah 6-Fawad 7- Umar Akmal 8- Razzaq 9- Sami/Asif , 10-Aamer 11-Ajmal
Oppositions
Australia looks to be a strong favorite to win this tournament, their batsmen and their bowlers are in supreme form but a lot will depend on the performance of their pace bowlers who gave away a lot of runs in the last edition and failed to defend some decent totals, Dirk Nannes is in good form, they have several spin options, but I guess Steve smith and Nathan Hauritz will be their main spinners their batting has a lot of fire power in it but the key to their success wil be how their players adjust to the low bounce in West Indies.
SriLanka is another team which is a serious contender, they have one of the best spin attack, their batting has a lot of variety but the form of Sangakara is questionable their pace attack is decent. The conditions in WI will suit the SriLankan team.
India is also a major contender but they have been hit by injury to Sehwag, Gautam Gambhir and Yuvraj singh are also not in form. But India still has a lot of fire power in their batting but they might struggle with their bowling. The selection of Piyush Chawla and leaving out Uthappa might hurt team India.
England has also developed a good team for the format their batting has a lot of fire power, their bowling is decent. They are underrated in this format but I think they will make it into the final four.
West Indies are quite strong in this format but because of a lethargic and unprofessional approach they never produce results justifying the talent they possess. But playing infront of home crowd might provide them the extra spark.
South Africa also has a good team but they rely heavily on Smith and Kallis in their batting which might cause problems for them, they also lack in the spin department.
NewZealand doesn’t have the firepower to make it to the finals they might reach the Semis but I don’t see them winning the tournament.
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