New Zealand and Pakistan are seperated by just four points in ICC’s test rankings. Both teams will be starting a three match test series today. NewZealnd might have a home advantage but other than that both teams are quite similar, the team which will display better batting skills might prevail as both team have their strength in their bowling, batting is a weak point for both the teams.

Pakistan’s middle order looks quite inexperienced without Younis and Misbah but it will be a good opportunity for Umar Akmal and Fawad to establish their place in the team and even if Misbah and Younis return to form Pakistan will have a strong bench for the Australian series if these two players succeed. Pakistan’s batting will rest on the shoulders of Mohammad Yousaf who averages 69 in New Zealand.

The history is in favor of Pakistan as New zealand has only won one test series at home from Pakistan and that way back in 1985 since then Pakistan has won four out of six series.

Pakistan does have some highly talented stroke players  but they lack in shot selection and the test temperament. Shane Bond and Daniel Vettori who is not fully fit will pose the main danger for Pakistan. Pakistan’s legendary off spinner Saqlain Mushtaq is currently on a special coaching assignment with the Kiwi team, he is giving them tips how to tackle Ajmal and Kineria. It’s yet to be seen if Saqi’s tips will help the Kiwis or not.

Pakistan’s bowling although looks good on paper but it’s true strength will depend on the form of Asif and Umar Gul.  Aamer though he is very talented but is very inexperienced in this format he can only provide the bowling attack the flair but the real job to run through the opposition will depend on the old horses. The conditions in New Zealand will suit Mohammad Asif and he might prove to be quite handful for the Kiwis his presence in the Pakistan team might deter the Kiwis to prepare seaming tracks as New Zealand will rely on the sheer pace of Shane Bond. Umar Gul is not in the best of form this year, Umar has so far not been able to establish himself as a test bowler, his lack of control with the new ball and failure to control his length with the old ball has been a huge problem for Pakistan. The selectors should closely monitor his performance as a test bowler and if he fails to impress in the first test then Abdul Rauf should be played in the second match.

Pakistan can only afford to play one spinner most probably it will be Danish kineria , which in my opinion will be a mistake. Kineria is too expensive and his strike rate is also very high, I think Ajmal will be a better choice only if Yousaf uses him intelligently.

The Kiwi team is top heavy the retirement of Jacob Oram has hurt them their lower middle order is not very experienced and might struggle against Pakistan’s bowling attack. Guptill and Ross Taylor will be the main players for New Zealand in batting.

PCB will get a lot of flak if Pakistan lost this series, but to be very honest both Younis and Misbah deserved to be dropped and they have been replaced by the best available players in Pakistan, the only way to rebuild a team is to try out new players, the rebuilding process needs time and patience, it’s a step in the right direction and the fans should realize that.

As regards the captaincy issue it was impossible for Younis to remain captain with the form he was in, and all the skepticism about Yousaf’s captaincy is a bit premature and wrong. This is another area where New Zealand will have an edge over Pakistan the only reason other teams make a smooth transition through the rebuilding phase is because their fans and media behave maturely and do not demand a change after every series.

The New Zealand series should only be seen as a rebuilding process. A strong performance will help build the confidence of players for the Australian series and a poor performance will help identify the grey areas.