It’s a rematch between two sides who are quite familiar with each other. Based on the stats Australia has an upper hand over England and probably that is the sole reason most of the pundits are picking Australia as the favorite.
Gregg Chappell has even predicted a final between Pakistan and Australia he only stopped short of predicting Australia the winner in the finals, nobody should take his predictions seriously he is no Nostradamus his predictions for the Semi finals were also wrong.
In my opinion the Toss, the Track and the performance of English spinners will determine the winner of this match.
It’s a day and night match, three out of five times the team batting first won the match and scored over 300 runs.
The track chanched it’s nature and became much softer after the India -Australia game and became difficult to bat on, but there hasn’t been any rain after that so the pitch must have dried up a bit.
Australia is yet to score over 250 runs in the tournament, the way they collapsed against West Indes and Pakistan chasing small totals indicates the fragility of their batting, most of their new batsmen are suspects against spinners, if England plays Adil Rashid they can add some pressure, but England will look for a better performance from Swann who has been a bit expensive so far and has taken only two wickets in three matches.
Australia will rely on its bowling to win this match they have made to the semis just on the back of their bowlers, their batting is as mercurial as Pakistan’s these days. Ponting and Hussey have been carrying the major work load as far as batting is concerned the rest of the batsmen will have to step up if Australia has to win.
England will be looking toward Andrew Strauss to deliver a big innings he has only scored 34 runs in the three matches he played so far, the English players will have to match the mental toughness of the Australian players and will have to grind it out in the middle, it’s not going to be easy.
England will be missing Broad who has picjed up 10 wickets so far in the tournament although he has been expensive but broad is not only a wicket taking bowlers but also adds to the depth of Englands batting.
Update:
England won the toss and elected to bat first, so far England has displayed a lot of aggression but they have lost three important wickets it’s 78/3 after 13 overs. The extra pace of Lee and Johnson did the trick for Australia the pitch looks good for batting. England are in a deep hole right now Eoin Morgan and denly are on the crease these two will have to bat out of their skins to pull England out of this hole. England does not afford to lose another wicket at this stage. There is a forecast for rain and thunder storm in the after noon, I wonder if the match will be washed out or will be completed. But Englands good run rate will certainly help them.
Update:
England are 101/5, I think the rest of the match has become a formality.
Update:
England are 150/6 after 31 overs. Even if this pair continues to bat for another 10 overs England doesn’t have enough wickets in hand to launch an attack in later overs. Ponting has brought back Lee to break this partnership and finish England off. The Pitch has been ideal for batting, English top order couldn’t differentiate between recklessness and aggression. Collingwood was the man in form for them and he in my opinion was the chief culprit played a needless shot.
A lot of people have been criticizing players like Yousaf, Dravid and Jayawardane who drop their anchor and try to build the innings, England missed a player like that in their line up today they lost two quick wickets for 30 odd runs but none of their middle order batsmen could drop the anchor and they kept on losing wickets. Wright and Bresnon are doing what the Collingwood or Denly should have done.
It’s not possible to score 300 without someone dropping the anchor but the problem with this approach is that sometimes the player who drops the anchor fails to accelerate toward the end or if wickets keep on falling from the other end due to inept batting or in an attempt to accelerate the runrate results in a failure to achieve the target score and as a result the batsman who dropped the anchor gets all the blame.
I think the risk of failure is more with being over aggressive and its less with a planned innings which is carefully paced.
Meanwhile England is at 200/6 Bresnon and Wright both are batting sensibly. they have scored 103 off 115 balls so far, 11 overs are remaining lets see if England can score 300 they still have the batting power play left, England should take that power play now when these players are well set.
Luke wright is gone, England have been too late in taking the power play, Peter Siddle breaks the partner ship for Ponting.
Update:
England are 236/7, Bresnon is batting really well he has almost pulled his team out of the hole he just needs to bat till end now and score some runs in the batting power play.
Update:
Bresnon failed to bat till end and England failed to bat out their full quota of 50 overs, they have set Australia a target of 258, the ptich is extremely good for batting. English bowlers will have to to some thing extra to win this match.
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