This is the preview for the first match starting on Boxing Day between Australia and India. Cricketfiles is pleased to cover in depth analyses of this series. We hope you will enjoy reading this preview just as much as we enjoyed writing it!

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The atmosphere in tomorrow’s first encounter between Australia and India is expected to be electric. Cricket fans all around the world hope with bated breath that this will be a competitive series.

It does have reason to be competitive. India in the past three or four years have transformed into an admirable Test side, sharing the opposite fate really to their arch rivals Pakistan. It is a wonder how India since 2003 until 2007 were considered to be an average ODI side whereas Pakistan were considered more competent in the international arena. However, this year has seen India catapult to a respectable ODI status and the Indian team has never looked more confident in Tests. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s performance in both ODI’s and Tests has plummeted this year.

Coming back to tomorrow’s match, India have reason to be confident. In the last 3 series the teams have played, India have won 4 matches and Australia have won 4 matches too. This is something the Indians can take with them in the first Test.

The Indians can also take heart from the fact that, whereas India’s performance generally on foreign pitches has always been substandard, they do tend to perform above their potential on Australian pitches. So if statistics are anything to go by, India can prove to be a worthy opposition.

Meanwhile, Australia remain the true world champions when it comes to Tests (might I add, they are the best team easily when it comes to ODI’s, too). The Australian team appears to be more balanced than the Indian team. I have expressed before that the Indian squad is always packed with quality batting but lacks depth in bowling. Even now there is a solid chance that the playing XI tomorrow will consist of two pacers and two spinners. Unless Zaheer and RP can work wonders in almost every session they get a chance to bowl, India will struggle to pick up wickets. It goes without saying that Australia’s fielding is a huge factor when it comes to the difference in class in both teams. The other aspect going in Australia’s favour is that Hogg although not a Test specialist might well play. Indians are the best players of spin but they face difficulty tackling “chinaman” bowling. Paul Adams has been the most successful spinner against India- so Hogg’s chinaman deliveries may trouble the Indians.

THE PITCH

The pitch is also much alike how I earlier anticipated it to be. In the early sessions it appears to benefit the pacers but towards the last few days it will assist the spinners. Apparently currently the Melbourne pitch has a decent amount of moisture, slightly more than you would expect on a typical Melbourne pitch.

What matters now is how attacking the toss-winning captain will want to be. I said before that in this series Kumble just can’t afford to be defensive. He will have to exploit all options available to him. Of course, it depends on the condition of the pitch tomorrow morning to see who will play and who will be left out. This in turn will decide what the toss-winning captain will want to do- bat or bowl. I think Kumble should bat first if he wins the toss. The reason I am saying this is because, batting first means bowling last and it will be in the final sessions that the cracks in the pitch will assist the Indian spinners the most. We have all spoken about the negative mindset of the Indian captains historically. In my view being aggressive means utilising your most potent weapon at a time when it will do the most damage. So although India might lose a few quick wickets in the first session (if they bat first that is!), they have the batting to stabilise their middle order- they will need to play positive cricket and the onus will be on Kumble the most to “turn” the match around for Indians in the final few sessions. This is of course assuming a lot of different factors, but it is only being mentioned for “illustration purposes”. I feel Australia’s position is more clear- if they win the toss they need to bowl; their pacers need to fire and they need to put pressure on the Indians.

THE PLAYING XI

This as mentioned earlier will be decided according to the pitch conditions and the extent to how attacking or defensive the captains want to be. However, a likely playing XI for Australia is:

1 Phil Jaques, 2 Matthew Hayden, 3 Ricky Ponting (capt), 4 Mike Hussey, 5 Michael Clarke, 6 Andrew Symonds, 7 Adam Gilchrist (wk), 8 Brett Lee, 9 Mitchell Johnson, 10 Stuart Clark, 11 Brad Hogg

The reason why Johnson may be played instead of Tait is because he has a good record against India and because he has been in excellent form of late. He can also bowl consistently around 85-90 mph which always helps against India.

India’s playing XI is likely to be:

1 Wasim Jaffer, 2 Rahul Dravid, 3 VVS Laxman, 4 Sachin Tendulkar, 5 Sourav Ganguly, 6 Yuvraj Singh, 7 MS Dhoni (wk), 8 Anil Kumble (capt), 9 Zaheer Khan, 10 RP Singh, 11 Ishant Sharma/Harbhajan Singh

My guess is Kumble may well decide to opt for Harbhajan over Ishant because the latter might be too nervous and Harbhajan has the benefit of experience as well as commendable previous performances against Australia. Jaffer is likely to get a nod over Sehwag owing to his exemplary form against Pakistan, but I would have opted for Sehwag for reasons mentioned earlier in my previous posts.

CONCLUSION

Fielding, mental strength, home crowd- Australia are going ahead with these obvious advantages. Their team is more balanced and their pace attack is likely to pose plenteous problems even to giants like Tendulkar and Dravid. Plus I feel Hogg may have a few surprises for the Indians.

From India’s point of view, they will once again have to rely on their supreme batting prowess to post a challenging total. When all is said and done though, Tests is a game for specialists and all specialists whether openers, middle order batsmen, spinners or pacers, need to fire in from all quarters. That is when you become a top Test team. This is not to say India does not have the talent, but the job of neutral cricket enthusiasts is to make predictions on the basis on common sense, reasonableness and balance of probabilities. So owing to the obvious advantages Australia carry with them plus considering their balanced team, I think it will be a tough fight for the Indians. However, the Indians have done it before, and if they have done it before they can do it again.